The results of Lok Sabha Elections 2009 show that Kerala has remained faithful to its record of switching between the two prominent fronts, LDF and UDF. So much so that one can even predict the results of the next Lok Sabha Elections which should be held in 2014 unless the new dispensation at Delhi fails to be a stable one. It would be an exact opposite of the current results.
Why? Because by then we will have a UDF government ruling the state for over two years and would be as fed up with it as we are with the current LDF government. It is the utter disappointment of the neutral voters, those who are not hardcore LDF or UDF supporters, which results in the alternating fortunes for the fronts in successive elections. The net result is that the state and its people suffer from the negligence and lack of will power from its rulers. Even the achievements of the government get sidelined due to various controversies that keep flooding the state.
Another side-effect of this is that each government invariably abandons whatever few successful programs the previous one may have implemented, often to come up with a new one that requires everyone to start from the scratch. This means there is no continuity whatsoever in the developmental front. A good example would be the fate of the Smart City project.
Contrast this with the neighboring state of Tamil Nadu. DMK and AIADMK may not have many things in common, but both are aware of the importance of development politics. The result is evident in this election as there was no anti-incumbency wave against the DMK, even when the power cuts in TN was a major problem.
Apart from the above mentioned factor, the LDF managed to antagonize the voters even more this time around. The factional fight within the CPI(M), arrogance of the state party leadership especially with regard to its relations with its own allies and with various factions like the church, NSS etc and the failure of the party mechanism as a whole in gauging the mood of the voters all proved costly for the left Front. In central and southern parts of Kerala, the church and organizations like NSS have contributed significantly in large victory margins of the UDF.
On the other hand, the BJP has yet again failed to put up a good show except in Kasragode and Kozhikkode. In a state where the presence of an anti LDF or an anti UDF wave is almost a guarantee in any election, the BJP and all other third aspirants like the NCP, BSP etc will always have a difficult time in making their presence felt. Yet, the BJP should strengthen the organization so as to make sure that all its political votes are polled in every election.
Coming back to the LDF, CPI(M)’s decision to align itself with the PDP even at the risk of alienating other LDF constituents was a fatal mistake. In the process, the LDF not only lost the elections, but it also lost the moral high ground as far as communal politics is concerned. Same is the case with fight against corruption. After proclaiming the willingness to fight the Lavlin case both legally and politically, the party has sunk down to unprecedented levels in trying to avoid the prosecution of its state supremo.
The CPI(M) which has always been in the fore-front of anti communal and anti corruption movement made yet another historic blunder by experimenting on these two fundamental issues. In the process, it ended up looking pretty similar to the Congress. Large number of party members and core supporters have voted against the LDF, especially in Northern Kerala. The CPI(M) failed to poll its guaranteed political votes in party citadels like Kannur, Vadakara, Palakkad and Kozhikkkode. This is a clear signal to the party leadership. If the party does not take immediate corrective measures and acknowledges the same in a convincing manner, it is in the danger of losing its relevance in the ideological arena.
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